Can NEAR Intents value capture outgrow token issuance?

For every $1 of new NEAR issued, Where this number comes fromCR_float in USD over 30 days: (NEAR received by the buyback wallet + NEAR burnt as gas), each day valued at that day's price, divided by gross issuance valued the same way.As of 2026-10-31.supply_daily.parquet · 2025-05-10 to 2026-11-01 · sha256 382b732bfee_wallet_inflows_daily.parquet · 2025-11-07 to 2026-10-31 · sha256 b32041f1price_daily.parquet · 2025-11-04 to 2026-11-01 · sha256 48afd3b4Rebuild offline with `make build`; hashes are checked by `make verify`. come back as buybacks or gas burn.

30 days to 2026-10-31. In NEAR units the same ratio is 0.120. This week: CR 30d = 0.120 (prev 0.118). Break-even means 100 cents.

Read the thesis

Volume needed to break even

Where this number comes fromV* / V0: break-even daily Intents volume (buyback take rate, 2.5% issuance, current price and burn) over the 30-day average volume.As of 2026-10-30.supply_daily.parquet · 2025-05-10 to 2026-11-01 · sha256 382b732bfee_wallet_inflows_daily.parquet · 2025-11-07 to 2026-10-31 · sha256 b32041f1price_daily.parquet · 2025-11-04 to 2026-11-01 · sha256 48afd3b4defillama_intents_daily.parquet · 2024-12-10 to 2026-10-30 · sha256 ae50ca9aRebuild offline with make build; hashes are checked by make verify.

$989.9M per day against $130.4M today

Protocol revenue that reaches the buyback wallet

Where this number comes fromBuyback wallet inflow / revenue reaching all NEAR revenue wallets (internal transfers netted), both valued at daily prices, 30 days.As of 2026-10-30.fee_wallet_inflows_daily.parquet · 2025-11-07 to 2026-10-31 · sha256 b32041f1price_daily.parquet · 2025-11-04 to 2026-11-01 · sha256 48afd3b4Rebuild offline with make build; hashes are checked by make verify.

The rest is held in collection wallets that have not paid out

Intents volume our channel data covers

Where this number comes fromVolume in the Intents Explorer (1Click transactions only) / DefiLlama Intents volume, same days.As of 2026-10.explorer_1click_daily.parquet · 2026-07-01 to 2026-11-01 · sha256 1b17dcccdefillama_intents_daily.parquet · 2024-12-10 to 2026-10-30 · sha256 ae50ca9aRebuild offline with make build; hashes are checked by make verify.

In 2026-10, down from 48.7% in 2026-07: channel claims carry this scope

Where $10,000 of Intents volume goes

In the 30 days to 2026-10-30, every $10,000 of Intents volume produced $16.01 of fees, $5.48 of protocol revenue and $3.62 that reached the buyback wallet, while new NEAR worth $33.91 was issued.

Fees

$16.01

Protocol revenue

$5.48

Reached NEAR wallets

$5.53

Reached buyback wallet

$3.62

Gas burn (chain-wide)

$0.49

New NEAR issued

$33.91

Kept at each step: fees 0.16% of volume, revenue 34.2% of fees, on-chain 100.9% of DefiLlama revenue, buyback wallet 65.5% of on-chain revenue. Gold bars are what counts in CR; the outlined bar is what they are measured against.

Query and model

Computed by ledger.waterfall (src/capture/models/ledger.py) from the tables below.

supply_daily (sql/supply_daily.sql)

-- supply_daily: end-of-day total supply and gas burn, in NEAR (yocto / 1e24).
-- Params: @start_date, @end_date (inclusive).
-- burnt_near = tokens_burnt of execution outcomes + receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt of transactions
-- (DATA_AUDIT.md check 2). Values are FLOAT64 in the source: ~15 significant digits.
WITH blk AS (
  SELECT
    block_date,
    MAX(block_height) AS block_height,
    MAX_BY(total_supply, block_height) AS total_supply
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.blocks`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
eo AS (
  SELECT block_date, SUM(tokens_burnt) AS burnt_receipts
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.execution_outcomes`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
tx AS (
  SELECT block_date, SUM(receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt) AS burnt_conversion
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.transactions`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
circ AS (
  SELECT
    block_date,
    MAX_BY(circulating_tokens_supply, computed_at_block_height) AS circulating_supply
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.circulating_supply`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
)
SELECT
  block_date AS `date`,
  block_height,
  total_supply / 1e24 AS total_supply_near,
  (burnt_receipts + burnt_conversion) / 1e24 AS burnt_near,
  burnt_receipts / 1e24 AS burnt_receipts_near,
  burnt_conversion / 1e24 AS burnt_conversion_near,
  circulating_supply / 1e24 AS circulating_supply_near
FROM blk
LEFT JOIN eo USING (block_date)
LEFT JOIN tx USING (block_date)
LEFT JOIN circ USING (block_date)
ORDER BY 1

fee_wallet_inflows_daily (sql/fee_wallet_inflows_daily.sql)

-- fee_wallet_inflows_daily (raw balances): end-of-day liquid NEAR balance of the revenue wallets.
-- Params: @start_date, @end_date (inclusive), @wallets (ARRAY<STRING>).
-- ft_balances_daily has no block_date column; its partition column is epoch_date, so the date
-- filter is on epoch_date (documented exception to CLAUDE.md rule 2). liquid is in NEAR units.
-- Daily changes are derived in Python (capture.extract.fee_wallets).
SELECT
  epoch_date AS `date`,
  account_id AS wallet,
  'NEAR' AS token,
  liquid AS balance_end
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.ft_balances_daily`
WHERE epoch_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  AND account_id IN UNNEST(@wallets)
ORDER BY 1, 2

price_daily (HTTP API)

https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/near/market_chart/range

defillama_intents_daily (HTTP API)

https://api.llama.fi/summary/dexs/near-intents; https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents; https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyRevenue; https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyHoldersRevenue

Data table

Step	USD, 30 days	Per $10,000 of volume
volume	$3.91B	$10000.00
fees	$6.26M	$16.01
revenue	$2.14M	$5.48
onchain_revenue	$2.16M	$5.53
buyback_wallet	$1.42M	$3.62
burn	$193.24K	$0.49
issuance	$13.27M	$33.91

supply_daily.parquet · BigQuery public dataset · 2025-05-10 to 2026-11-01 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:40:33Z · sha256 382b732b
fee_wallet_inflows_daily.parquet · BigQuery public dataset · 2025-11-07 to 2026-10-31 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:40:35Z · sha256 b32041f1
price_daily.parquet · CoinGecko API · 2025-11-04 to 2026-11-01 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:43:33Z · sha256 48afd3b4
defillama_intents_daily.parquet · DefiLlama API · 2024-12-10 to 2026-10-30 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:43:25Z · sha256 ae50ca9a

What closes the gap to break-even

Volume must grow 7.59x to cover issuance today. The HSP-029 issuance cut would close 1.58x of that and sending all revenue to buybacks another 1.51x, which still leaves 3.18x for volume growth.

Today (2.5%, buyback wallet)

7.59x

+ issuance cut to 1.6%

4.82x

+ all revenue to buybacks

3.18x

Price is not a lever here: buyback and issuance are both valued at the latest NEAR price, and V* scales with it (see the Valuation Lab sensitivity). Each step keeps the previous ones. HSP-029 is a proposal; its vote result is not confirmed in our sources.

Query and model

Computed by ledger.lever_bridge (src/capture/models/ledger.py) from the tables below.

supply_daily (sql/supply_daily.sql)

-- supply_daily: end-of-day total supply and gas burn, in NEAR (yocto / 1e24).
-- Params: @start_date, @end_date (inclusive).
-- burnt_near = tokens_burnt of execution outcomes + receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt of transactions
-- (DATA_AUDIT.md check 2). Values are FLOAT64 in the source: ~15 significant digits.
WITH blk AS (
  SELECT
    block_date,
    MAX(block_height) AS block_height,
    MAX_BY(total_supply, block_height) AS total_supply
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.blocks`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
eo AS (
  SELECT block_date, SUM(tokens_burnt) AS burnt_receipts
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.execution_outcomes`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
tx AS (
  SELECT block_date, SUM(receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt) AS burnt_conversion
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.transactions`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
circ AS (
  SELECT
    block_date,
    MAX_BY(circulating_tokens_supply, computed_at_block_height) AS circulating_supply
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.circulating_supply`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
)
SELECT
  block_date AS `date`,
  block_height,
  total_supply / 1e24 AS total_supply_near,
  (burnt_receipts + burnt_conversion) / 1e24 AS burnt_near,
  burnt_receipts / 1e24 AS burnt_receipts_near,
  burnt_conversion / 1e24 AS burnt_conversion_near,
  circulating_supply / 1e24 AS circulating_supply_near
FROM blk
LEFT JOIN eo USING (block_date)
LEFT JOIN tx USING (block_date)
LEFT JOIN circ USING (block_date)
ORDER BY 1

fee_wallet_inflows_daily (sql/fee_wallet_inflows_daily.sql)

-- fee_wallet_inflows_daily (raw balances): end-of-day liquid NEAR balance of the revenue wallets.
-- Params: @start_date, @end_date (inclusive), @wallets (ARRAY<STRING>).
-- ft_balances_daily has no block_date column; its partition column is epoch_date, so the date
-- filter is on epoch_date (documented exception to CLAUDE.md rule 2). liquid is in NEAR units.
-- Daily changes are derived in Python (capture.extract.fee_wallets).
SELECT
  epoch_date AS `date`,
  account_id AS wallet,
  'NEAR' AS token,
  liquid AS balance_end
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.ft_balances_daily`
WHERE epoch_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  AND account_id IN UNNEST(@wallets)
ORDER BY 1, 2

price_daily (HTTP API)

https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/near/market_chart/range

defillama_intents_daily (HTTP API)

https://api.llama.fi/summary/dexs/near-intents; https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents; https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyRevenue; https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyHoldersRevenue

supply_daily.parquet · BigQuery public dataset · 2025-05-10 to 2026-11-01 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:40:33Z · sha256 382b732b
fee_wallet_inflows_daily.parquet · BigQuery public dataset · 2025-11-07 to 2026-10-31 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:40:35Z · sha256 b32041f1
price_daily.parquet · CoinGecko API · 2025-11-04 to 2026-11-01 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:43:33Z · sha256 48afd3b4
defillama_intents_daily.parquet · DefiLlama API · 2024-12-10 to 2026-10-30 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:43:25Z · sha256 ae50ca9a

Coverage ratio over 7, 30 and 90 days

CR_float over 30 days was 0.120 on 2026-10-31; its highest value since the buyback wallet appeared is 0.166, so buybacks and burn have not yet covered issuance in any 30-day window measured.

12026-09-09: 502,792 NEAR moved between revenue wallets (netted out, not a buyback) (from the data)
22026-10-01: NEAR Intents exploit; 1Click services halted (reported, source 1, source 2, source 3)

Query and model

Computed by coverage.cr_float (src/capture/models/coverage.py) from the tables below.

supply_daily (sql/supply_daily.sql)

-- supply_daily: end-of-day total supply and gas burn, in NEAR (yocto / 1e24).
-- Params: @start_date, @end_date (inclusive).
-- burnt_near = tokens_burnt of execution outcomes + receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt of transactions
-- (DATA_AUDIT.md check 2). Values are FLOAT64 in the source: ~15 significant digits.
WITH blk AS (
  SELECT
    block_date,
    MAX(block_height) AS block_height,
    MAX_BY(total_supply, block_height) AS total_supply
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.blocks`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
eo AS (
  SELECT block_date, SUM(tokens_burnt) AS burnt_receipts
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.execution_outcomes`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
tx AS (
  SELECT block_date, SUM(receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt) AS burnt_conversion
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.transactions`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
circ AS (
  SELECT
    block_date,
    MAX_BY(circulating_tokens_supply, computed_at_block_height) AS circulating_supply
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.circulating_supply`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
)
SELECT
  block_date AS `date`,
  block_height,
  total_supply / 1e24 AS total_supply_near,
  (burnt_receipts + burnt_conversion) / 1e24 AS burnt_near,
  burnt_receipts / 1e24 AS burnt_receipts_near,
  burnt_conversion / 1e24 AS burnt_conversion_near,
  circulating_supply / 1e24 AS circulating_supply_near
FROM blk
LEFT JOIN eo USING (block_date)
LEFT JOIN tx USING (block_date)
LEFT JOIN circ USING (block_date)
ORDER BY 1

fee_wallet_inflows_daily (sql/fee_wallet_inflows_daily.sql)

-- fee_wallet_inflows_daily (raw balances): end-of-day liquid NEAR balance of the revenue wallets.
-- Params: @start_date, @end_date (inclusive), @wallets (ARRAY<STRING>).
-- ft_balances_daily has no block_date column; its partition column is epoch_date, so the date
-- filter is on epoch_date (documented exception to CLAUDE.md rule 2). liquid is in NEAR units.
-- Daily changes are derived in Python (capture.extract.fee_wallets).
SELECT
  epoch_date AS `date`,
  account_id AS wallet,
  'NEAR' AS token,
  liquid AS balance_end
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.ft_balances_daily`
WHERE epoch_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  AND account_id IN UNNEST(@wallets)
ORDER BY 1, 2

Data table

Date	CR 7d	CR 30d	CR 90d
2026-10-02	0.118	0.163	0.117
2026-10-03	0.120	0.155	0.117
2026-10-04	0.113	0.143	0.117
2026-10-05	0.114	0.142	0.117
2026-10-06	0.107	0.139	0.117
2026-10-07	0.092	0.138	0.118
2026-10-08	0.099	0.141	0.120
2026-10-09	0.116	0.143	0.121
2026-10-10	0.127	0.143	0.122
2026-10-11	0.147	0.146	0.124
2026-10-12	0.141	0.144	0.123
2026-10-13	0.141	0.143	0.124
2026-10-14	0.170	0.148	0.125
2026-10-15	0.160	0.149	0.126
2026-10-16	0.139	0.146	0.126
2026-10-17	0.130	0.138	0.126
2026-10-18	0.117	0.132	0.126
2026-10-19	0.115	0.130	0.126
2026-10-20	0.122	0.132	0.126
2026-10-21	0.098	0.128	0.126
2026-10-22	0.091	0.124	0.127
2026-10-23	0.096	0.121	0.127
2026-10-24	0.095	0.118	0.127
2026-10-25	0.102	0.117	0.128
2026-10-26	0.111	0.119	0.129
2026-10-27	0.111	0.121	0.130
2026-10-28	0.114	0.122	0.130
2026-10-29	0.127	0.122	0.131
2026-10-30	0.137	0.122	0.132
2026-10-31	0.144	0.120	0.133

supply_daily.parquet · BigQuery public dataset · 2025-05-10 to 2026-11-01 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:40:33Z · sha256 382b732b
fee_wallet_inflows_daily.parquet · BigQuery public dataset · 2025-11-07 to 2026-10-31 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:40:35Z · sha256 b32041f1

Break-even meter

At today's inputs, break-even volume is $989.9M a day on the buyback basis. Change issuance, take rate and the price assumption to see how V* moves.

Annual issuance

Take rate basis

NEAR price multiple: 1.0xTake rate multiple: 1.0x

Break-even Intents volume V*

$989.9M per day

Actual 30-day average: $130.4M per day, 7.6x short of break-even (13% of V*).

Inputs as of 2026-10-30: supply, price, 30-day burn and take rates from the data. Moving a slider is a sensitivity, not a forecast; no price is predicted.

Query and model

Computed by valuation.breakeven_volume (same formula, run in the browser) from the tables below.

supply_daily (sql/supply_daily.sql)

-- supply_daily: end-of-day total supply and gas burn, in NEAR (yocto / 1e24).
-- Params: @start_date, @end_date (inclusive).
-- burnt_near = tokens_burnt of execution outcomes + receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt of transactions
-- (DATA_AUDIT.md check 2). Values are FLOAT64 in the source: ~15 significant digits.
WITH blk AS (
  SELECT
    block_date,
    MAX(block_height) AS block_height,
    MAX_BY(total_supply, block_height) AS total_supply
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.blocks`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
eo AS (
  SELECT block_date, SUM(tokens_burnt) AS burnt_receipts
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.execution_outcomes`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
tx AS (
  SELECT block_date, SUM(receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt) AS burnt_conversion
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.transactions`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
),
circ AS (
  SELECT
    block_date,
    MAX_BY(circulating_tokens_supply, computed_at_block_height) AS circulating_supply
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.circulating_supply`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  GROUP BY block_date
)
SELECT
  block_date AS `date`,
  block_height,
  total_supply / 1e24 AS total_supply_near,
  (burnt_receipts + burnt_conversion) / 1e24 AS burnt_near,
  burnt_receipts / 1e24 AS burnt_receipts_near,
  burnt_conversion / 1e24 AS burnt_conversion_near,
  circulating_supply / 1e24 AS circulating_supply_near
FROM blk
LEFT JOIN eo USING (block_date)
LEFT JOIN tx USING (block_date)
LEFT JOIN circ USING (block_date)
ORDER BY 1

fee_wallet_inflows_daily (sql/fee_wallet_inflows_daily.sql)

-- fee_wallet_inflows_daily (raw balances): end-of-day liquid NEAR balance of the revenue wallets.
-- Params: @start_date, @end_date (inclusive), @wallets (ARRAY<STRING>).
-- ft_balances_daily has no block_date column; its partition column is epoch_date, so the date
-- filter is on epoch_date (documented exception to CLAUDE.md rule 2). liquid is in NEAR units.
-- Daily changes are derived in Python (capture.extract.fee_wallets).
SELECT
  epoch_date AS `date`,
  account_id AS wallet,
  'NEAR' AS token,
  liquid AS balance_end
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.ft_balances_daily`
WHERE epoch_date BETWEEN @start_date AND @end_date
  AND account_id IN UNNEST(@wallets)
ORDER BY 1, 2

price_daily (HTTP API)

https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/near/market_chart/range

defillama_intents_daily (HTTP API)

https://api.llama.fi/summary/dexs/near-intents; https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents; https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyRevenue; https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyHoldersRevenue

supply_daily.parquet · BigQuery public dataset · 2025-05-10 to 2026-11-01 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:40:33Z · sha256 382b732b
fee_wallet_inflows_daily.parquet · BigQuery public dataset · 2025-11-07 to 2026-10-31 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:40:35Z · sha256 b32041f1
price_daily.parquet · CoinGecko API · 2025-11-04 to 2026-11-01 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:43:33Z · sha256 48afd3b4
defillama_intents_daily.parquet · DefiLlama API · 2024-12-10 to 2026-10-30 · pulled 2026-11-02T03:43:25Z · sha256 ae50ca9a

What would change our mind

Three numeric conditions, re-evaluated on every build. The first two would support the thesis that capture can outgrow issuance; they move independently. The third would withdraw the headline until explained.

30-day average Intents volume reaches the break-even volume V*
not met
Now $130.4M/day against $989.9M/day (13% of the way)
all protocol revenue that reaches NEAR wallets goes to the buyback wallet
not met
Now 65.5% against 100.0% (65% of the way)
on-chain and DefiLlama revenue differ by more than the tolerance in a complete month: the headline is withdrawn until explained
not triggered
Now 11.0% against 15.0% (74% of the way)